As Donald Trump’s second presidential term commences, many people, especially Democrats, are eager for future midterm and presidential elections to arrive. To prepare for this, political strategists are already observing key house races and states to look out for in the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election. For the elections that succeed those, however, Democrats may be in trouble.
In 2030, a new census will be conducted across the United States, and with it, new population figures for individual states will be published. These new population figures entail the redistricting process, where congressional districts (and in turn, electoral votes) are redrawn and allocated based on the updated population numbers to make all Congressional districts roughly equal in population. When analyzing current population trends, one thing is clear: Democratic states are primed to lose many house districts and electoral votes, and Republican states are primed to gain many.
The most recent census was taken in 2020, which resulted in the current allocation of electoral districts that will be present in the upcoming 2026 and 2028 elections. In anticipation of the 2030 census, forecasts for the reapportionment of house districts are made to break down specific changes in house districts by state. When the 2024 populations of each state are compared to the 2020 populations, the pattern of Democrats losing house seats and Republicans gaining them emerges.
What will some of the specific changes look like? For the Democrats, California and New York—the two most populous “blue” states, as well as the first and fourth most populous states respectively—are currently projected to lose a combined five congressional districts by the 2030 census. In addition, other Democratic stronghold states of Oregon, Minnesota, Illinois, and Rhode Island are projected to lose one district each.
Republicans are sitting much prettier. Texas and Florida—the two most populous “red” states, as well as the second and third most populous states respectively—are projected to gain a combined eight congressional districts. Additionally, the Republican stronghold states of Utah and Idaho are projected to gain one seat each. This ultimately means that, if these predictions are accurate, Democrats will lose a total nine congressional districts, while Republicans will gain a total of 10.
While there could be many explanations for this shift in populations between the states, there is one key area to analyze that can provide a lot of key insight into these trends: housing prices.
High housing costs and shortages are certainly not unique to blue states, as many developed countries also suffer from similar problems. However, as demonstrated in the 2030 census projections, the immense population loss/stagnant growth seen in many blue states, particularly California and New York, is certainly affected by the absurd housing and rent prices that those states boast. Of the 25 metropolitan areas that U.S. News ranked as being the most expensive to live in, 10 are in California alone (including its most populous cities of L.A., San Diego, San Jose, and San Francisco). Additionally, other major cities located in Democratic states, such as New York City, Boston, Seattle, Providence, and Chicago all land safely in the top 25, with the only “red state” city landing on the list being Miami.
These harsh rankings speak for themselves when it comes to housing statistics. In Los Angeles, the main metropolitan area of California and the second most populous in the country, is home to housing prices that are 137% of the national average, with a median home price of $1,178,844, and average rent of $3,584 per month. San Francisco does not fare any better, containing housing prices that are 182% of the national average, with a median home price of $1,404,951, and average rent prices of $4,271 per month. New York City, the most populous metro area in the country, as well as the metro area that has the highest GDP out of any city on Earth, struggles with similar high housing prices, as the housing costs are a whopping 412% above the national average, with the median home price being $2,548,933 and the median rent being $7,749 per month.
In addition to the extremely high rent and housing costs, California and New York contain some of the highest homeless populations in the entire country. California is home to 171,521 homeless people (43.7 per 10,000 residents), while 74,178 homeless people reside in New York (37.7 per 10,000 residents). High rates of homelessness can be explained by many factors, but the absurdly high housing prices are certainly a big influence on the homelessness rates, as people who lack adequate incomes can easily get evicted and lose their property, causing them to live on the streets.
With all of these factors in mind, it is no surprise that many blue states, especially California and New York, are currently experiencing an exodus of citizens. Why would anybody want to remain in those states, where many of their cities rank among the most expensive metro areas in the country, when they can instead move to metro areas that are comparatively much cheaper, such as Houston (housing costs 19% below average) or Tampa (housing costs 4% below average)? This remains especially true as working online becomes increasingly common, and living in a city where your employer is headquartered is increasingly less necessary.
Given that California is home to national hubs for entertainment (Hollywood) and technology (Silicon Valley), and New York is home to the most economically prosperous metro area on the planet, there should be people eager to move to those places. Yet, the high housing costs prove to be a major hurdle to the growth of these states, as well as many other Democratic states, whereas many Republican states are thriving due to their much more affordable housing.
Ultimately, if Democrats wish to hold significant power in the Electoral College and House of Representatives, then there should be a much greater initiative within blue states to build more expansive housing and lower costs. Otherwise, Democrats will continue to bleed precious house seats and electoral votes during a time when intense polarization oozes in our government and politics.
